A 30-day waiver reportedly issued by the United States allowing India to continue purchasing Russian energy reflects a “very sad situation” on two fronts according to energy markets and geopolitics expert Dr Anas El-Hajji, who said one of those fronts is the question that why does India need Donald Trump’s permission anyway.
Speaking on The Hindustan Times Podcast, Dr El-Hajji said the development highlights deeper uncertainties in global energy security and shipping routes.
“This waiver reflects a very sad situation on two fronts. The first front is, why does India, a great country like India, need permission from President Trump or his government basically to buy Russian oil? That’s number one,” he said.
“Number two, supposedly, the war is going to be over very soon. We were told that the Iranian Navy has been destroyed and the situation in the Gulf should be resolved quickly. President Trump is going to provide insurance and he’s going to provide security to the ships going through the Irma space. Why allow India to get Russian oil if the situation should be resolved?”
Dr El-Hajji added that the waiver suggests the geopolitical and energy situation may not stabilise anytime soon.
“It’s sad that India needs that permission and it is sad because it is an indication that the situation is not going to be resolved. I’m not talking only about the war. I’m talking about the situation in the Irma space,” Dr El-Hajji said
He also pointed to long-standing views held by US President Donald Trump on oil prices.
“We know that President Trump is against low oil prices. We know that he’s been like this for a very long time, even before he was a president. So why?”
The discussion also touched upon the impact of US sanctions on Russian energy companies and their effect on Indian purchases of crude oil.
‘Russian oil in the dark market’
Dr El-Hajji noted that some Indian imports had slowed in recent months following US sanctions targeting Russian firms. “We saw, of course, over the last couple of months that some Indian purchases of crude oil, especially from Russia, have declined because of the fact that the United States had unveiled these sanctions against companies like Rosneft and Luke Oil.”
He added that major Indian refiners had previously relied heavily on Russian crude supplies.
“So Indian companies like Reliance for their refineries in places like Jamnagar were buying a lot of energy from Russian companies like Rosneft. They ceased those purchases because of American sanctions.”
“So do we expect that over the next 30 days, just to clarify, that those sanctions that were put in place last year by the US Treasury will be suspended for those 30 days? Is that what we’re seeing? In a sense, we don’t know exactly what it is. All it means, basically, that there are some oil tankers near India that are Russian or carrying Russian oil, and then India is allowed to get them,” he said.
However, he argued that Russian oil has continued to reach Indian refiners through less visible channels.
Elaborating something he finds “kind of funny”, he said “India never stopped buying the Russian crude. And the data about 1 or 1.1 million barrels, these are the kind of the apparent data that 1.1 million barrels import.”
“But I track these things all the time, and I can tell you, we’ve seen those Russian ships coming to Oman, and then within a day or two, they are going back to Russia. So where did that oil go? And the distance between them and the Indian ports, basically, is very short.”
According to him, Indian refiners are still accessing discounted Russian crude through alternative markets.
“So we know that the Indian refiners are buying that Russian oil in the dark market anyway, and they are buying it at a discount anyway.”
‘Hormuz Strait situation very destructive for world economy’
Dr El-Hajji emphasised that the larger concern for global markets is not the waiver itself but the broader instability affecting shipping routes and energy trade.
“But the issue right now is, for India and for the world, is not the permission to India to buy the Russian crude. The issue is, what does it mean for the Homruz Strait?”
“It means that this situation is going to continue, and that is very destructive to the world economy, destructive to the economy of India and everything else.”
He argued that the crisis could be resolved quickly if regulatory obstacles were temporarily eased.
“All the situation can be solved easily if they want to solve it by calling the EU and telling them to suspend the segments in the law.”
“There are certain segments in the law, in the insurance law, if they suspend that for a month, just a month, they can solve the problems immediately. Why they are not doing it?”
Dr El-Hajji said insurance restrictions and European regulations were central to the current disruption in oil shipments.
“Because the issue is really with the European law on one side, and the insurance companies on the other that decided to cancel the insurance policies on the tankers, and the tankers got stuck.”
“So why this is not being dealt with? Why do we have to go the other way to solve the problems while we can solve this problem heads on, just by telling the EU to do these things?” he added.
