Nearly 451,000 additional deaths, including 15,800 (± 1,600) more heat-related fatalities in India, are projected globally in the next six months due to the prevailing “Super El Niño,” compared to a normal year, according to a University of Chicago study released on Wednesday.
“For India, nearly half of those deaths fall in just three months – December to February. The toll is not expected to stop there, with these deaths projected to keep rising into India’s summer,” said the study, which seeks to allow decision-makers to take emergency actions to save lives.
Weakening trade winds cause El Niño, a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific every two to seven years. It can last up to 12 months and affect rainfall and temperature patterns. The World Meteorological Organisation has warned this year’s El Niño may be stronger than anything since monitoring began and literally off the charts.
Emergency response needed
University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab study said directing emergency response and resilience efforts to high-priority regions could potentially avoid tens of thousands of deaths. It suggested efforts like heat warnings, health outreach to vulnerable populations, cooling centers and hydration stations, worker protection, and expanded health system capacity.
The study found global land temperatures will be 1.2°C above normal in the coming months due to the El Niño, which began in June and is expected to last through Northern Hemisphere spring.
It said anomalously warm conditions should resemble the high temperatures climate change is projected to deliver 20 years in the future and should lead to 44% more extremely hot days than one would expect in a normal year.
The assessment cited data and projected 451,000 additional deaths that would particularly impact the Global South, highlighting the need for climate mitigation, from September 2026 to February 2027.
“The 451,000 deaths projected to occur during the first half of El Niño alone are about 65 times larger than the 6,800 people believed to be dead or missing from the recent Nepal flash flood,” the study said.
Flash floods and debris flows destroyed the Gyirong Port on the China-Nepal border and struck dozens of settlements along a 72 km stretch of Nepal’s Trishuli River on August 26.
The study identified the regions where the greatest number of deaths are projected. It pinpointed where immediate actions could offer the greatest opportunity to save lives.
Over the next six months, the report projects 66,800 additional deaths across Africa’s Sahel region (Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad), with 31,400 in Nigeria alone. An additional 19,400 deaths are likely in Southeast Asia (Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia). In Indonesia, 19,300 additional deaths are projected. Brazil will be the most impacted in South America, with 13,300 deaths likely from El Niño’s heat.
Climate Impact Lab co-founder Michael Greenstone said they have long been able to predict the impacts of temperatures on crops, and now can predict their impact on the worst outcome – death. “The result is that we now can estimate that 451,000 people may die in the coming months due to El Niño,” he said. “This report allows decision-makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months.”
The study said the El Niño is also acting as a “postcard from our future,” bringing temperatures climate change is projected to deliver in 20 years. “In this way, it offers a glimpse at what lies ahead without new investments in adaptation,” the study said.
Tamma Carleton, the Faculty Head of Research for the Climate Impact Lab who co-authored the report, said increasing emergency response and better targeting of efforts can still save many lives this year. “However, 20 years from now, once today’s extreme temperatures become the new normal, we do not want to be in a constant state of emergency. We need to mobilise resources now to design, deploy, and evaluate the preparation and planning tools that will save lives in the years ahead.”
