Dalal Street spent Monday moving a lot and deciding very little. After a volatile session packed with sharp swings, the benchmark indices ended almost exactly where they began.
The BSE Sensex closed at 78,520.30, up 26.76 points or 0.03%, while the NSE Nifty50 settled at 24,364.85, higher by 11.30 points or 0.05%.
The mood was shaped by familiar concerns. Fragile talks between Iran and the US, rising crude oil prices, and caution ahead of further geopolitical developments.
Renewed disputes over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz added to the nervousness in global markets. Investors appear to be weighing whether recent tensions are temporary pressure tactics or something more serious.
If the situation worsens, crude oil prices could rise sharply. For India, which imports most of its oil, that can mean pressure on inflation, the rupee and company costs.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments Limited, said investors are also watching the ceasefire timeline this week, which has kept risk appetite in check.
“Renewed disputes over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz injected volatility into global markets,” Nair said. He added that investors viewed recent disruptions in the Middle East as “potential negotiation tactics rather than the onset of a full-scale conflict.”
Still, the market did not fold.
Quarterly earnings are beginning to provide support, especially in sectors where investors still see long-term growth.
This has led to selective buying in pockets of the market. Nair said “growth-oriented sectors such as power, capital goods, and consumer durables” continued to attract investor attention.
Not every sector enjoyed the session.
IT, telecom and banking stocks saw weakness, helping cap gains in the headline indices.
Ankur Punj, MD and Business Head at Equirus Wealth, said markets ended flat after sharp intraday swings amid weakness in those sectors.
“There is currently a lot of uncertainty ahead of the peace talks,” Punj said, adding that investors were adopting a “wait and watch approach before taking any firm stance on equity and other financial assets.”
That sums up Dalal Street right now. The market is not fearful, but it is not carefree either.
It is willing to buy selectively, unwilling to chase aggressively, and quick to react to every headline from overseas.
For the next few sessions, traders will watch three things closely: oil prices, developments in West Asia and the pace of Q4 earnings. Until then, expect more movement, and not necessarily more direction.
