At a time when the military-industrial complex in Moscow is preoccupied with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, India has prioritised the modernization of its armed forces.
This urgency has increased in conjunction with the tensions between the world’s most populous nation and its northern neighbor, China, particularly since a fatal conflict between their troops in 2020.
Harsh V Pant, a researcher at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, stated to AFP that India’s assessment of its security environment in relation to China has been significantly altered.
The clash on their common frontier, which resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian and at least four Chinese soldiers, caused a significant deterioration in the relationship between the two neighbors.
“It has sort of shaken the system and there’s a realisation that we have to do whatever is best now, and very fast,” Pant stated regarding the incident.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reported last year that India has become the world’s largest arms importer, with purchases consistently increasing to account for nearly 10% of all global imports in 2019-23.
Additional orders are anticipated from the United States, France, Israel, and Germany in the years ahead, totaling tens of billions of dollars.
According to Indian media reports, Modi is anticipated to sign agreements for Rafale fighter aircraft and Scorpene-class submarines valued at approximately $10 billion during his visit to France next month.
“It is not an easy task to switch”
In an effort to stimulate the production of local arms, Rajnath Singh, the defense minister, has also pledged to award at least $100 billion in new domestic military hardware contracts by 2033.
Nitin Gokhale, a strategic affairs analyst, stated to AFP that India has been a traditional importer for decades and has only recently shifted its focus to indigenous manufacturing.
“It is not an easy task to transition; not all items can be manufactured or produced in this country,” he stated, asserting that the nation was incapable of producing “high-end technology” weapons systems.
However, it has achieved a number of remarkable milestones in its endeavors.
India has successfully conducted a successful long-range hypersonic missile test, launched its first manufactured aircraft carrier, and opened an expansive new helicopter factory this decade.
This, in turn, has facilitated the expansion of the arms export market, which recorded sales of $2.63 billion last year. Despite the fact that this amount is negligible in comparison to the revenues of established actors, it represents a 30-fold increase in a decade.
It is anticipated that India will announce a significant agreement in the future weeks to provide Indonesia’s military with supersonic cruise missiles, which is estimated to be worth nearly $450 million.
By 2029, the government intends to triple this figure, with a substantial portion of the $75 billion it allocated to defense last year serving to stimulate domestic production.
‘Spread risks’
In recent years, India has intensified its defense cooperation with Western nations, particularly in the highly publicized Quad alliance with the United States, Japan, and Australia.
This reorientation has enabled India to negotiate a variety of agreements with suppliers from Western countries to import and locally co-produce military drones, naval ships, fighter aircraft, and other hardware.
It has also resulted in a significant decrease in India’s proportion of weaponry imported from its long-standing ally, Russia. According to SIPRI data, Russia supplied 76 percent of India’s military imports in 2009-13, but this figure has since plummeted to 36 percent in 2019-23.
Nevertheless, New Delhi has endeavored to preserve the delicate equilibrium between India’s historically cordial relations with Moscow and its pursuit of more substantial partnerships with Western nations.
Modi’s government has declined to explicitly censure Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, instead advocating for both parties to return to the negotiating table in response to pressure from Washington and other international actors.
Gokhale stated that India was unable to sever its relationship with Russia, which continues to be a significant supplier of sophisticated weaponry, such as nuclear submarine technology and cruise missiles.
“India has certainly spread its risks by sourcing from other countries,” said the representative. “But Russia remains a very important and dependable partner.”
