The Assam assembly election is expected to witness a direct contest between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, which is looking forward to its revival.
While chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is eyeing another term in the state, the Congress is banking on the anti-incumbency to return to power after a decade.
The BJP is banking on the face of Himanta Biswa Sarma and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, while the Congress has put forward Gaurav Gogoi, the son of former CM Tarun Gogoi.
In a state facing several key issues, including immigration and alleged corruption, both the ruling BJP-led NDA and opposition Congress have formed alliances with smaller parties to rule out any probability of division of votes.
Minor players in Assam and where do they stand?
The politics in Assam, traditionally a two-way contest, has seen several minor yet crucial players in the state politics.
Akhil Gogoi’s Raijor Dal and Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), two parties born out of agitation against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, remain a crucial force in the state politics, where illegal immigration dominates among other issues. This time, both parties are contesting the elections in alliance with the Congress.
In the last election, AJP couldn’t win any seat; Gogoi’s Raijor Dal won one seat. This time, Raijor Dal is contesting on 11 seats, while AJP is contesting on 8 seats.
Apart from Raijor Dal and AJP, Congress has forged alliances with other minor parties, including CPI(M), All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC) and the CPI(ML).
In the NDA front, the BJP has Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) as allies. While the AGP won nine seats, the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) won four seats.
Lone wolf factor
Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Pramod Boro’s UPPL are going solo in the Assam elections. While Congress front-runner Gaurav Gogoi has ruled out any electoral alliance with the AIUDF this time, several of the party leaders have deserted the camp over growing unpopularity among Muslims, its primary vote base.
In the 2021 elections, the Congress was in alliance with the AIUDF to ensure that minority votes didn’t split. The party won 16 seats in the 2021 election. However, this time, the AIUDF has got support from Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, in an apparent bid to consolidate minority voters.
The United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL), which walked out of the BJP-led alliance, has decided to chart its own path in Assam, citing “ideological differences”.
The party is contesting 21 seats in the state and looking to make an impact in the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR), apart from its core areas.
Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP has also announced a list of 20 candidates for Assam so far. West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s TMC has also finalised 22 candidates for the neighbouring state.
