Pakistan may face a serious wheat shortage this year, raising concerns about food security at a time when the country is already dealing with regional tensions and a war with neighbour Afghanistan.
According to a report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Pakistan’s wheat production is expected to decline by 2 to 2.2 million tonnes compared to last year.
The estimate has triggered concern among policymakers, as wheat flour remains the staple food for a large portion of the population. Products such as roti, bread, naan and other wheat-based items form the backbone of daily diets.
The situation is particularly worrying because Pakistan exports crops such as rice and maize in large quantities, while domestic consumption depends heavily on wheat. A production decline of over 2 million tonnes could significantly worsen food insecurity.
Conflict and Regional Instability Add Pressure
The wheat crisis comes at a time when Pakistan is facing heightened tensions with neighbouring Afghanistan. According to the report, both sides are engaged in hostilities, and Baloch fighters have also expressed support for Afghanistan. The Baloch region includes major wheat-producing areas stretching from Khyber to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
With unrest in these regions, agricultural activity has been affected. Pakistan is therefore confronting two challenges simultaneously — a potential wheat shortage and security tensions on multiple fronts.
Why Wheat Production Is Falling
Several factors are contributing to the decline in wheat output.
One of the main reasons is prolonged drought, particularly in rain-fed regions. Due to insufficient rainfall, the area under wheat cultivation has shrunk from 10.37 million hectares in 2025–26 to 9.1 million hectares.
According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department, rainfall in early 2025 was 39% below average, with southern and rain-dependent regions suffering the most. Limited water availability for irrigation has made it difficult for farmers to maintain crop health, directly affecting yields and farm incomes.
In addition, the government delayed announcing the support price for wheat for the 2025–26 season. The uncertainty around pricing and procurement reportedly left many farmers unsure about sowing decisions, leading to reduced planting and lower overall supply.
Wheat’s Role in Pakistan’s Economy
Wheat plays a crucial role in Pakistan’s agricultural sector and economy. Reports suggest that wheat contributes around 2–3% to the country’s GDP. For many farmers, wheat cultivation is directly linked to livelihood and survival.
Punjab, often referred to as Pakistan’s “wheat bowl”, is central to national food supply. This year, drought conditions in Punjab have raised fears that food shortages could intensify. Analysts say rising cultivation costs, declining yields and limited government support have put wheat farmers under severe strain.
Over the past year, flour prices have climbed sharply, reflecting the fall in production. Economists warn that rising wheat and flour prices are pushing more people into poverty.
Flour Prices on the Rise
Flour prices in Pakistan vary depending on region and quality.
By late February 2026, a 10 kg bag of flour typically costs between 890 and over 1,500 Pakistani rupees. A commonly sold 20 kg bag is priced around 1,780 to 1,810 rupees. Premium chakki flour can cost between 160 and 200 rupees per kilogram.
In Islamabad, a 10 kg bag is available for around 890–900 rupees, while a 20 kg bag costs approximately 1,780 rupees. In Karachi and Lahore, retail prices for a 10 kg bag are around 905 rupees, and 15–20 kg bags range between 1,729 and 1,885 rupees. Premium or fortified flour products are priced even higher.
Indus Water Treaty Tensions a Contributing Factor?
Experts also point to tensions surrounding the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) as a possible contributing factor to the water crisis. The treaty is often described as a lifeline for Pakistan’s agriculture. However, in 2025, tensions escalated after India suspended aspects of the agreement following a terror attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir.
The suspension reportedly disrupted river-level data sharing, affecting Pakistan’s ability to manage major reservoirs such as Tarbela and Mangla. Reduced water flow in the Indus river system, estimated at around 20%, combined with limited water storage capacity of roughly 30 days, has increased vulnerability to both drought and flood risks.
Punjab’s irrigation system has faced serious strain due to water shortages, particularly during the kharif (summer) crop season. Analysts suggest that the combination of drought, water management challenges and geopolitical tensions has compounded Pakistan’s wheat crisis.
With production falling and prices rising, millions of Pakistanis could face increasing food insecurity in the coming months.
