It is not often that two superstars with pan-India presence clash at the box office on a big festival. But somehow, Prabhas has made it a habit now. After seeing Salaar clashing with Shah Rukh Khan’s Dunki in 2023, his latest film – The Raja Saab – will now arrive in the theatres on the same day as Vijay’s final film, Jana Nayagan. Even though the two films belong to different languages and industries, the overlap in their release dates and their scale means they will be competing for the same screens and, in many cases, the same audience.
We take a look at who is likelier to come out on top in this superstarry clash this Pongal/Sankranthi.
Jana Nayagan box office prediction
Vijay’s films have largely been led by collections in Tamil Nadu, with support from the Telugu states, and to an extent Kerala and Karnataka. Outside the south, his films do limited business. But the hype for his films in the south is so immense that their opening day numbers routinely surpass the collections of even the biggest pan-India films. Both Leo and GOAT – his previous two releases – earned over ₹100 crore worldwide on their opening days. Current tracking indicates that Jana Nayagan is headed the same route. The film is expected to earn somewhere between ₹100-110 crore gross worldwide on opening day. However, that is a letdown for Vijay, whose Leo opened at a staggering ₹126 crore.
In India, Jana Nayagan is tracking to earn ₹45-48 crore net on opening day. This is, again, lower than both his previous films – Leo ( ₹64 crore) and GOAT ( ₹48 crore). As the release day draws nearer, makers of Jana Nayagan would hope that the political thriller inches closer to the ₹50-crore mark, but Leo’s lofty day 1 haul seems beyond its reach.
The RajaSaab box office prediction
Prabhas, on the other hand, has managed to ensure pan-India openings for all his films post Baahubali. The Hindi-dubbed versions of his films have routinely opened in excess of ₹15 crore net in India, enabling his films to get much larger openings nationally and worldwide. For instance, Salaar opened at ₹158 crore worldwide despite Dunki’s challenge, and Kalki 2898 AD went even further with a ₹175 crore opening day.
Given that The Raja Saab is not a massy actioner, it is expected to fetch lower returns on opening day than some of Prabhas’ other post-Baahubali offerings. Current tracking indicates that the film can open at ₹130-145 crore worldwide, a huge number and certainly much more than what Jana Nayagan can manage.
In India itself, Prabhas is again expected to rule the roost with an expected ₹85-90 crore net opening, including ₹25+ crore from the dubbed versions alone.
Who wins the superstarry clash?
The Raja Saab, featuring Sanjay Dutt and Boman Irani, popular names among the Hindi audience, is expected to open at ₹18-20 crore in Hindi alone. Jana Nayagan may struggle to earn over ₹1 crore in the language on opening day, on the other hand. But the battle is closer in the stars’ native languages. Both Jana Nayagan and The Raja Saab are currently tracking at ₹40-crore openings in Tamil and Telugu, respectively.
Clearly, Prabhas’ appeal in the Hindi belt, courtesy of Baahubali and Kalki 2898 AD, means he will steal the show from Vijay in this clash. Jana Nayagan should ideally get a bigger opening than even Leo, given that it is Vijay’s final film. But it seems that the clash with The RajaSaab, as well as the growing buzz for Sivakarthikeyan’s Parasakthi, seems to have dulled its edge. Another reason for the low tracking could be the delay in opening the advance bookings for the film, caused by the delayed CBFC certification for Jana Nayagan. The Vijay film is still awaiting its censor certificate, with barely three days to go before its release.
About the Pongal/Sankranthi clash
Directed by H Vinoth, Jana Nayagan is also a political drama with Vijay at its centre. The film also stars Pooja Hegde, Bobby Deol, and Mamitha Baiju. Jana Nayagan is Vijay’s final film before he devotes his time to his political career as the leader of his political party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).
The Raja Saab is directed by Maruthi, and apart from Prabhas, it also stars Sanjay, Boman, and Malavika Mohanan in the lead roles. Both films will be released in theatres on January 9, ahead of the Pongal and Sankranthi weekend.
