In a Tamil Nadu long dominated by the DMK and AIADMK, an actor-turned-politician is once again poised to reshape the political landscape and make a bid for the top post. Axis My India has predicted that actor Vijay’s new party, TVK, could win 98–120 seats in its very first electoral contest in the state.
The pollster’s survey on the next chief ministerial choice also favours Vijay, with 37 per cent of respondents picking him as their preferred candidate for the post, followed by MK Stalin.
However, other pollsters have projected more modest numbers for TVK. According to People’s Pulse, the party is likely to secure between 18 and 24 seats in its debut election, while P-Marq estimates its tally in the range of 16 to 26 seats. Matrize has predicted 10–12 seats for the actor’s party, and Chanakya Strategies has projected 18–26 seats.
Most exit polls, by and large, predict a second consecutive term for the incumbent MK Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) government, with seat projections ranging between 120 and 145.
According to People’s Pulse, the DMK and its allies are expected to secure between 125 and 145 seats, while the AIADMK and its partners may win 65 to 80 seats. People’s Insight projects a slightly narrower range, giving the DMK alliance 120 to 140 seats and the AIADMK camp 60 to 70 seats.
Praja Poll offers a more favourable outlook for the ruling alliance, estimating 148 to 168 seats for the DMK and partners, compared to 61 to 81 seats for the AIADMK-led bloc. P-Marq similarly projects 125 to 145 seats for the DMK alliance and 65 to 85 for the AIADMK alliance.
Matrize has predicted 122 to 132 seats for the DMK and allies, and 87 to 100 for the AIADMK and its partners. Kamakhya Analytics, however, predicts a tighter race, giving the DMK alliance 78 to 95 seats and the AIADMK camp 68 to 84 seats.
In contrast, JVC projects a lead for the AIADMK alliance with 128 to 147 seats, while the DMK and allies are estimated to secure 75 to 95 seats.
Can Vijay be the next MGR?
Tamil Nadu has often seen its biggest cinema stars make the transition into politics. With Vijay’s entry into the political arena and pollsters predicting a strong seat tally for his party, the actor could well emerge as the state’s next star-powered chief minister.
Film stars have long shaped public imagination, influenced ideology, and campaigned for political movements in the state. A victory for Vijay would make him the third actor-turned-politician to rule Tamil Nadu, following the towering legacies of M G Ramachandran (MGR) and J Jayalalithaa.
MGR, a three-time chief minister of Tamil Nadu, first rose to prominence through his films before making a successful shift to politics. The founder of the AIADMK, Ramachandran remains one of the most influential political figures in the state, with a loyal fan base that has endured even after his death.
Another legendary actor-politician the southern state has seen is J Jayalalithaa, who ruled Tamil Nadu for over 14 years across six terms. Also known as ‘Amma’, she enjoyed massive public support for her “action-oriented” and “composed” approach to governance. Brought into public life by her mentor and AIADMK founder, the late M G Ramachandran, Jayalalithaa began her political journey in 1982 when she was appointed a member of the nutritious noon meal scheme monitoring committee.
What lies ahead for TVK chief Vijay in the 2026 assembly elections remains to be seen. The counting of votes will take place on May 4.
