“One more such victory and I will be undone”
– Greek king Pyrrhus
The fortnight that will end this Saturday will perhaps go down in history as one of those short periods when the world’s future, as anticipated even a few days ago, was rewritten in a burst of diplomacy that might seem cringe to purists.
US President Donald Trump’s signature Sharpie was in action in a series of geopolitical shifts, although the weight of his role is disputed. To be sure, despite all the derision he has drawn and the fact that he was the one who first lit the trade fire, Trump has managed to steer the world away from war. That the leader of the world’s preeminent superpower is allergic to conflict may not be a bad thing when the Doomsday Clock is just 89 seconds away from midnight. This is not to say that all his moves have been stellar or even constructive, but he has certainly helped bring down the global political temperature, for now. He demonstrated in the past two weeks that he will court anyone willing to give him a deal, even arch rivals and a designated terrorist who spent five years in a US-run jail.
The Dealmaker
Perhaps for the first time ever, a US President shook hands with a person who is designated as a global terrorist by his country and even carried a bounty of $10 million on his head until last December. President Donald Trump not only met with the person-Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa-but also lifted sanctions on Syria at the behest of the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, or ‘MBS’, on his first visit to West Asia after assuming office. Reports suggest the deal brokered by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and MBS has something for everyone, including a Trump Tower in Damascus.
The process to end the three-year-old war between Russia and Ukraine is underway in Istanbul. Trump had offered to attend it if Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would too, but Putin decided not to go. President Erdogan, who will host them, has also successfully negotiated a deal with Kurdish separatists who have agreed to join mainstream politics, ending a 40-year militancy.
Abrupt Moves In Middle East And China
Last week, Trump abruptly ended the US’ war on Iran-backed Yemeni rebel militia, the Houthis, in exchange for leaving US ships passing through the Red Sea alone. He even called them bravehearts. The US also directly negotiated the freedom of one of the American hostages held by the Palestinian Hamas. More importantly, he cut Israel out from the deals, effectively allowing the Houthis and Hamas to continue their fight against Israel. Meanwhile, a report suggests that Iran has offered an unusual nuclear deal, in which it has proposed joint uranium enrichment for civil use with the US, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. That’s arch rivals collaborating to develop an explosive technology.
In another surprise move, the US and China agreed to roll back their tariff war after secret talks between them in Geneva appear to have found common ground.
Trump’s most important intervention, however, came in Asia, when he jumped in to calm India and Pakistan, which were in an intense military engagement that threatened to blow up into a full-scale war between two nuclear powers.
Trump’s unconventional leadership has disrupted global diplomatic norms and ushered in a style of deal-making that is personal and non-consultative, bordering on the whimsical. It should be underscored that most of the countries Trump is dealing with are not democracies. Even countries such as Turkey and Russia, which hold regular elections with questionable fairness, are led by autocratic leaders.
India On A Tightrope
This is where India might find itself in a spot. The war with Pakistan has created a rift in many of its bilateral relationships, carefully nurtured and transformed over the past two decades. Pakistan has managed to garner international support from several countries with which India had built friendly relations. The Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) issued a statement backing it. Despite war historians and defence experts coming around to the view that India had a firm upper hand by the time the missiles stopped flying, India has not been able to live down the murmur around the alleged downing of its aircraft and the US intervention on a ceasefire.
It has cracked a key element of warfare: the ability to develop and manufacture its own weapon systems, which are technologically advanced and effective on the battlefield. India is a much bigger economic power than Pakistan, with an economy 12 times larger than its neighbour’s. Just one state, Tamil Nadu, equals Pakistan in terms of output. India’s most industrialised state, Maharashtra, has a state GDP of $490 billion, compared to Pakistan’s $338 billion. That should ideally have given India better heft on the global negotiating table.
Yet, its pursuit of an independent foreign policy just became harder. Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, appears to have succeeded in sowing deep doubts in the minds of many Islamic countries – that India is a Hindu nation that cannot coexist with Muslim nations.
The Uneasy Claims About India-Pak
Meanwhile, Trump’s impromptu statements have projected him as having undue influence over India. The US President claimed, first on social media, and then twice again on his West Asian visit, that he had brokered a deal between the two inimical nations by asking them to get on with trade instead of war. While India has refuted that trade was discussed, it has also indicated that it was deeply unhappy with the way Trump portrayed it. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who considers Trump his friend, did not mention him even once in his address to the nation, even though Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif thanked the US President profusely. The foreign ministry also rejected Trump’s offer to mediate the Kashmir issue.
While India does not want to link trade with war and terrorism in talks, dealmaker Trump seems to see them as a composite issue. He said he told Apple chief Tim Cook in Qatar not to make iPhones in India. Although he did not link it to the Indo-Pak issue and posed it as returning manufacturing to the US, the timing and the language suggest it might be his way of leaning on India on multiple issues. Meanwhile, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt hinted that the President was not getting enough credit for stopping the war.
Focus On Economy
The only way for India to play this game effectively is to strengthen its economy, allow businesses the freedom to operate, and strengthen governance. India’s manufacturing prowess is a legacy of investment in heavy industries early on, opening up key sectors in recent years, and empowering private business. Accelerating it is vital to national security. The entry of the private sector into defence is already paying dividends. India is currently the favourite market of investors. A normal monsoon is round the corner. The government’s focus should return to quickly securing economic partnerships with the US and the European Union. Trump’s remarks came even as Indian negotiators, led by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, were packing their bags for the US, where they will discuss the proposed bilateral trade pact with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. While the talks are confidential, Trump has let it slip that India may have offered tariff-free imports of all US goods.
Victors in future wars and trade will have two elements in common: they will own superior technology and the ability to make things, including war machines, at scale and speed. It’s really a no-brainer that India has the potential to do both.
(Dinesh Narayanan is a Delhi-based journalist and author of ‘The RSS And The Making Of The Deep Nation’.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
